Posts tagged “analysis”
6 posts
Reading the Table Beyond Points
Why the league standings rarely tell the whole story.
How Often Do Football Matches End in a Draw?
One match in four ends level — 25.4% across 336,765 games. But the rate swings by seven points between leagues, and draw streaks are far rarer than win streaks.
When Are Goals Scored in Football? Goals by Half
Second halves produce 56.3% of all goals — 440,209 against 341,172 — across 292,054 matches with half-time scores recorded. Here is why the gap is real and not a scheduling artefact.
Home Advantage in Football: How Many Points Is It Worth?
Across 336,765 matches, playing at home is worth 0.49 points per game. Here is where that number comes from, which leagues bend it, and what happened when the crowds went away.
Head-to-Head History That Matters
Which past matchups predict the next result, and which are noise.
Clean Sheets in Football: How Much Are They Worth in Points?
A home clean sheet is worth 2.53 points per game against 1.16 without one — a gap of 1.37. Keeping one is worth more than doubling your attack.